So now Donald Trump, fresh from polling showing that he is still well ahead of his closest competitor, now tells the world that he will not run as a third-party candidate so long as he is treated "fairly." He would not say what "fairly" means, but asserts that HE will know.What does that portend for the Republican Party? Well, if Trump has now shown that he can maintain pluralities everywhere, and there may well be nothing that he could say or do that would diminish his position, the Republican Party may be stuck with him because of the rules the Party has established for the selection of delegates. Here is why:
There will be 2,470 voting delegates at the Convention -- or 1,236 to win the nomination. As of now, 49% of those delegates will be selected before March 15 -- the time period during which the states MUST use a proportional formula for delegate allocation. So let's say that Trump secures 25% of those delegates -- and is running in "first place." In Trump World (and, to be honest about it, in Media World) that would mean he is "winning" even if most of the other 75% desperately wants someone else. So on March 14, let's say he has 302 delegates (25% of the total). He would need to get 934 of the remaining1,262 delegates to win. Sounds daunting, no?
Well, it is not daunting at all, under the present rules. The Republican National Committee allows states parties selecting their delegates beginning on March 15 to use a winner-take-all approach: In other words, whoever come in first, regardless of the percentage of votes secured, gets ALL the delegates. I don't know what the state parties have decided so far, but I suspect most or all have adopted a winner-take-all approach, because the party leaders generally want the process to be wrapped up early so that they can plan for the general election.
So even if a number of candidates drop out, it is not at all inconceivable that Trump will continue to role up pluralities; except that from March 15 onward, a 25% plurality translates to 100% of the delegates. If Trump gets pluralities in states with 74% of the remaining delegates, he wins the nomination.
Of course, the state parties could easily deprive Trump of such a triumphant march to the nomination by changing their rules to mandate proportional representation (as is required in the pre-March 15 states). Indeed, such an approach certainly would be more democratic. But, in Trump World, that would be "unfair" because he would be deprived of so many delegates even though he is "winning" -- i.e., coming in first in a multi-candidate field. If he loses the nomination because he is not treated "fairly," he has made it clear he will run as a third-party candidate, thus probably assuring a Democratic Party victory in November. So the party leaders likely will not change their formulas.
Now if, by Spring, there is a one-on-one matchup with Trump, one would think that Trump would lose. But who would that one candidate be? Is there any party leadership that could clear out the field for a one-on-one matchup? It is hard to see, for example, the Koch Brothers being able to push out Jeb Bush in favor of Scott Walker; and it is hard to see Scott Walker bowing out in favor of Bush.
There are many reasons I am glad I am not a Republican. This is one more.
Fishback is ahead of the game. He was well trained. If it turns out he’s right, you won’t forget where you learned about it first.
ReplyDeleteI assume this is from Ken Bode, who apparently is still struggling with 21st Century social media. A great and perceptive observer of American politics, Ken ran the Center for Political Reform (where I worked for him the summers of 1971 and 1972), and later was a journalist at The New Republic, NBC News, and PBS as host of Washington Week..
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