What will the GOP presidential nominating battle tell us about the Conservative Evangelical Christian Bloc?

Today's Monmouth University poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus voters may be indicative of an eventual fissure within the base GOP coalition -- at least in Iowa. And it may eventually tell us something significant about the Conservative Evangelical Christian voting bloc. Since 1988, Conservative Evangelicals have been a major voting bloc in the Iowa Republican caucuses. In every contested caucus since 1988, the candidate of the Conservative Evangelicals came in second (Pat Robertson in 1988 with 25%; Pat Buchanan in 1996 with 23%), first (George W. Bush in 2000 with 41%; Mike Huckabee in 2008 with 34%), or essentially tied for first (Rick Santorum in 2012 with 25%). With the emergence of the Tea Party, the Republican Party has lurched even farther right-ward.

What is unclear is the degree to which Conservative Evangelicals and Tea Party adherents overlap. While it seems that both groups generally share the same substantive positions on most issues, there is a difference of emphasis. The Conservative Evangelicals place more emphasis on theologically-based social issues, principally opposition to reproductive and gay rights. The Tea Party people place more emphasis on general hostility to the federal government, principally centered around the belief that any federal governmental activity will make their lives worse, not better.

So now we see Donald Trump channeling the Tea Party approach and getting 23% support, and Ben Carson saying (and apparently believing) all the things on social issues that the Conservative Evangelicals espouse and also getting 23% support. Ted Cruz, who is trying to stress both sets of issues, gets 9%; and Carly Fiorina, who seems to stress the general hostility to the public sector approach to politics, gets 10%. Trump is second choice of 10%, Carson of 12%, Cruz of 13%, Fiorina of 8%. These four lead the poll. The poll does not provide a breakdown of the first-place choices of the second-place respondents. Such a breakdown would be instructive. But it is interesting that among Evangelicals, 29% favor Carson, while 23% favor Trump, and among non-Evangelical voters, 24% favor Trump, while 18% favor Carson.

Since, at least at the moment, Trump is running well ahead of the field nationally, a big question is what portion of the Conservative Evangelicals, at the end of the day, would feel comfortable with the thrice-married, big-money hedonist Trump. (OK, I am loading the question by this characterization of Trump, but I suspect that much, maybe most, of the Conservative Evangelical bloc will see him this way, if they really believe what they say about what they want in a national leader.)

The pundits seem to think that, down the road, the big battle will be between Trump and a yet-to-be determined "establishment" candidate. But given the abysmal numbers for the so-called establishment candidates (Walker, Bush, Rubio, and Kasich, who poll at 7%, 5%, 4%, and 4%, respectively, in Iowa), it may well be that if there is a final face-off (or even sooner, in Iowa), it will be between Trump and an aggressively right-wing theological candidate. And if it is, we will find out how much of the Conservative Evangelical bloc's public policy views are really based on theology; while Conservative Evangelicals are big on repentance for past sins, Trump clearly (and proudly) does not repent for anything. But the more Conservative Evangelicals flock to Trump, the more it will be fair to conclude that their religiosity is really a cover for more deep-seated resentments having little or nothing to do with religion.