A deeper dive into what would happen if no one gets a majority in the Electoral College

OK, I hope and pray that this will not happen.  Every chance I get, I have been phone banking for the Clinton Campaign.  While she has her flaws, I strongly believe she would make a good President -- and is far better on every issue than Trump/Pence: Climate change, economic equity, women's reproductive rights, LGBT rights, for example.  Trump, on the other hand, has proven to be a dangerous, amoral or immoral demagogue; and Pence's strongly-held policy views are an anathema to every piece of progress our society has made in the last 80 years.

Hillary Clinton is most likely to win on November 8.  Still, recent polling indicates that there could be a tie in the Electoral College or, if Evan McMullen carries Utah, that no one would win a majority (see here ).  Last March, I laid out a scenario of what would happen if no candidate secured a majority of the Electoral College votes and the presidential election went to the House.  See here.    So it is time to take a deeper dive into that subject.

Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, if no one gets a majority in the Electoral College, selection of the President goes to the House of Representatives and selection of the Vice President goes to the Senate.  The House chooses among the top three Electoral College vote-getters; the Senate chooses among the top two. 

To be elected president in the House of Representatives, a candidate (who must be in the top three in the Electoral College) needs a majority of the 50 state delegations.  Assuming no change in the balance of the state delegations following the November 8 election, the Republicans will have a majority in 30 delegations.  See here  Of those delegations, nine have an even number.  If five of those delegations deadlock, then the House cannot select a president.  Why would that happen?  Because some Republican members of Congress from those states might prefer to stop Trump in the House and leave it to a Republican-majority Senate to choose Mike Pence as Vice President – and, therefore, Acting President under the 12^th Amendment.  (Of course, if the Democrats take back the Senate, then the dynamic obviously would be different.)

It should also be noted that of the 30 delegations presently majority Republican, Colorado is 4-3 Republican and Wisconsin is 5-3 Republican.  A flip in one seat in each state in the upcoming election would reduce the number of majority Republican delegations to 28.  That would mean that only three state delegations would have to deadlock to effectively throw the Presidency to whoever is elected Vice President in the Senate.

 Again, I hope and pray that it does not come to this.  Either a Trump or a Pence Presidency would be a disaster, each in its own ways.