The New York Times just published a really detailed analysis of the national nominating convention delegate selection process in the Republican Party, and how it is playing out. The question now isn't whether Trump gets the nomination, but, rather, how ugly the process will unfold.
One really interesting question is how the Evangelical vote will continue to split, particularly in light of the strange (instructive?) Trump responses to his rabid support by avowed White Supremacists, including the Ku Klux Klan. Some are disgusted by Trump; others don't seem to care about his flouting of their view of Christian norms of decent behavior. No one really knows yet what choices members of the former group will make when the November election roles around. These choices will tell us much about the actual nature (and splits) in among self-described Evangelicals. See my blog post here.
Both of these dynamics have been clear since late last summer. It is astounding how long it took the Republican "establishment", such as it is, and most of the media, to recognize them. See my blog post here.
For those election geeks who really want to get into the weeds, check out this resource.
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