I hate it when the facts do not fit my assumptions: Election Edition

I hate it when the facts undercut my assumptions.

I had assumed that it was gerrymandering that cost the Democrats their majority in the House of Representatives.  

But tonight I took a look at the states in which a disproportionate number of seats were won by Republicans, as compared to state-wide votes for Governor or Senate; and then did the same states in which a disproportionate number of seats were won by Democrats.

Gerrymandering in the following states gave Republicans disproportionate numbers of members of the House: Alabama 6(R)-1(D), Arizona 6-3, Florida 20-8, Louisiana 5-1, Missouri 6-2, Ohio 10-5, Texas 25-13, Wisconsin 6-2.  My rough estimate is that the Republicans secured, unfairly if the districting should reflect the statewide preference numbers,  4 extra seats each in Florida and Texas, 2 extra seats each in Arizona and Wisconsin, and one extra seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, and Ohio.  A total of 16 "extra" seats.

But gerrymandering gave Democrats  disproportionate numbers in these states: California 40(D)-12(R), Colorado 5-2, Connecticut 5-0, Illinois 14-3, Maryland 7-1, Massachusetts 9-0, New Jersey 9-3, New Mexico 3-0. My rough estimate is that the Democrats secured, unfairly if the districting should reflect the statewide preference numbers, 9 extra seats in California, 5 extra seats in Illinois, 3 extra seats in Massachusetts, 2 extra seats each in Connecticut and New Jersey, and one extra seat each Colorado, Maryland, and New Mexico.  A total of 24 "extra" seats.  (Note that New York's 15-11 result is not too different from the statewide votes for Senate and Governor.)

So this quick comparison suggests that if all states had districting that reflected the votes of their populations, then Democrats would have won eight fewer seats than it actually won.  

In terms of the true popular will, it is still true that even with fair districting nationwide, every state, no matter how small its population, gets one member of the House.  But that does not appear to skew the situation as badly as one might assume.  Only 5 states are so small that they only have one House member: Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.  And in the upcoming Congress, 3 of those seats will be held by Republicans and 2 will be held by Democrats.

Gerrymandering is a bad thing, but it appears (to my surprise) that that was not, on balance, the reason the Democrats lost the House.  I hate it when the facts contradict my hypotheses.  

In terms of the true popular will, it is still true that even with fair districting nationwide, every state, no matter how small its population, gets one member of the House.  But that does not appear to skew the situation as badly as one might assume.  Only 6 states are so small that they only have one House member: Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.  And in the upcoming Congress, 3 of those seats will be held by Republicans and 3 will be held by Democrats.

We have a very divided country.  Democratic strategists should recognize that the House is not as unreflective of the voters as appears to be the conventional wisdom. In 2020, Joe Biden received 51.3% of the popular vote, to Donald Trump's 46.8%.  The turnout for Presidential contests is always higher than in other contests.  So another part of the challenge is to convince people to vote in the down-ballot contests, too. The challenge is to convince and mobilize more people (whether they have voted in the past or not) to support Democratic policies. 

“Don’t let the light go out.” Is it becoming harder to avoid the darkness?

In 2018, I was very worried.  In a blogpost discussing the dangers and implications of the “nation state” bill in Israel, I concluded with the lyrics of Peter Yarrow’s anthem, Light One Candle, along with my concern: “I do not know from where we will be able to protect the light in the years that come.  But we cannot let the light go out.”

 

Four years later, things are barreling toward the worst-case scenario.  Aaron David Miller has been a prominent supporter of Israel for decades – and his recent piece in the Washington Post illustrates just how bad it has gotten: 

 

“Having brought to life the radical, racist, misogynistic and homophobic far-right parties, Netanyahu is now stuck with them. He has cut a deal with convicted inciter of hatred and violence Itamar Ben Gvir and made him minister of national security, with far-reaching authority for the West Bank, Jerusalem and mixed Arab-Jewish cities in Israel proper. Bezalel Smotrich, who has called for the expulsion of Arabs, is in line to run the finance ministry, with additional authority over the Civil Administration, which governs the West Bank. And Avi Maoz, who proudly espouses a fierce anti-LGBTQ agenda, has been made a deputy in the prime minister’s office in charge of “Jewish identity.”

 

It is as if here, in the United States, Trump were elected president and put Stephen Miller and Marjorie Taylor Green in charge of the fundamental policies of our government.

 

I will still love our country even if Trump returns to power, just as I still love Israel at a gut level.

 

Aaron David Miller understandably calls for U.S. pressure on Netanyahu to convince him to change course.  But is it too late?  This has been building since Menachem Begin announced in 1977 that he would “create facts in Judea and Samaria.” 

 

So what do we do now?  I do not have an all-encompassing answer.  The ethnic-expulsion and homophobia which is apparently the approach the new coalition is preparing to follow (and forms of which are emanating from Mar-a-Lago now, as Trump plots his return to power) is antithetic to Reform Jewish values.  How we, as an American Reform Jewish Community, respond may determine whether the Diaspora will be able to keep the light from going out.

 

How do we convey our Jewish values to our children and grandchildren in the face of the horrors that may be approaching?  And to the extent that our children and grandchildren have absorbed the Jewish values we cherish, how do we convince them that they should continue to identify as Jews?