Lessons for the Resistance at the End of Year One

The most recent  Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday includes some very interesting comparisons of the public’s view of President Trump between 2017 and 2018.   First, I think it is important to look at the last question:

"If the Democratic Party wins control of the House of Representatives in 2018, would you like to see them begin the process to impeach President Trump, or not?"

51% of the respondents say NO, 45% say YES.  While 51% of women say YES, 59% of men say NO.  Since we are not going to alter the 19th Amendment to deprive men of the right to vote (as tempting as that might be),  the 2018 Democratic Campaign should not harp on the impeachment issue.  As tempting as it is to turn all our energy to immediate removal of the Colluder in Chief,  the cowardice of the Republican Senators precludes us getting to the 2/3 of the Senate necessary to convict.  And even if we could, that would simply brings us into the Mike Pence Oval Office, which may be even worse.  The work of the Special Counsel will bring Trump down even further than he is.  But until that work is done, we should let the work speak for itself.  (Just as the legitimacy of the 1974 removal of Nixon was secured because Republican Congressional Leadership called for it, the same applies today.)  And the polling shows that we have a much better way to defeat the Trumplicans than impeachment -- a way that does not allow Trump to play the victim and further inflame his potentially dangerous base.

Check out these comparisons between January 2017, when Trump was inaugurated and January 2018, after nearly a year in office:

In January 2017, his approval numbers were 36% Approval/44% Disapprove/19% Neither or Don’t Know.  In January 2018, the numbers at 36%/59%/5%.  Remember that Trump received 46% of the popular vote in 2016; so 20% of those who voted for him were likely in the Neither or Don’t Know column of Approval by Inauguration.  It appears that while Trump has not lost his core base of approval (36%), most of those withholding judgment a year ago now disapprove.  A candidate who receives 46% of the popular vote, and then loses 20% of that support before he even takes office is in a terrible position.  The fact that he has made essentially no gains from his January 2017 popularity is devastating  for Trump and his allies, unless Trump can turn that around, or so depress a huge portion of the 59% of the electorate who disapprove that they abandon politics altogether.  

The 2017/2018 comparison whether Trump is perceived to be Honest are even more stark, going from 39 YES/54 NO/5  Neither or Don't Know to 34/63/3. 

Trump started out a bit better as to whether he has Good Leadership Skills, beginning at  49/46/5.  That has slid to 39-59-2.

In response to the question of whether Trump Cares About Average Americans, the numbers have gone from 44/53/3 to 38/59/2.  So now his Disapproval Rating is the same as his Cares About Average Americans Rating.  This number ventures into landslide loss territory if it stands up in 2018 for Trumplican candidates and Trump himself in 2020. 

The next question is even more significant now than it was in January 2017, given the saber rattling with respect to North Korea: Is Trump Level-Headed?  A year ago it was 33-62-5; now it is 28/69/2.

The last question with January 2017 to January 2018 comparisons is whether Trump Shares Your Values. The results have gone from 38/58/4 to 32/65/2.

In January 2017, Quinnipiac did not even bother to pose a question of whether Trump is Fit to Serve as President. This month, the result is 40/57/2.

So, to summarize, Donald Trump's levels of support which were gawd-awful low when he was inaugurated have only gotten worse – much worse.  59% of the people do not approve of his performance in office, 63% do not believe he is honest, 59% do not believe he is a good leader, 59% do not think he cares about average Americans, 69% do not think he is level-headed, 65% do not think he shares their values, and 57% do not think he is fit to serve as President of the United States.

Still, Democrats should not get overconfident.  It will take hard work and good candidates to save the nation from Trumpism.  Trump is pulling out every page of the authoritarian’s cookbook in inflaming and motivating his 1/3 base, in seeking to undermine people’s confidence in all American institutions, and in seeking to convince the 3/5 to 2/3 of the electorate who are fed up with him that they should just give up in the face of his awesomeness.  He will lie and mislead and then lie again.  Not just The Big Lie.  But The Big Lies.  His theory is that Americans are just as gullible as Germans were in 1933.

Trump and the Trumplicans try to divide us; we cannot let them succeed.  Whatever issues may divide the 3/5, they are dwarfed by what the current Administration is doing to us.  To quote Ben Franklin, who, in 1787, told a citizen that the Constitutional Convention had given America “a Republic, if you can keep it,” also warned a dozen years earlier that “we must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”