Evan McMullin: Linchpin of the Plot to Defeat Donald Trump and Make Mike Pence President

Evan McMullin and Donald Trump

As soon as I heard that the latest Never Trump conservative “Independent” candidate,  Evan McMullin, did his undergraduate work at Brigham Young University, the Never Trump strategy came into focus. I am sure they know it is a Hail Mary, but their entire approach may be to pour their resources into Utah, where Donald Trump is extremely unpopular, behind a Mormon candidate whose background (Mormon missionary AND CIA operative) fits the conventional wisdom of the Utah sensibility. And the final goal will be to place Mike Pence in the White House.

Why pin their hopes on Utah?  Because if McMullin were to secure a plurality of the Utah presidential vote and thus Utah’s six electoral votes, there is a possibility, however remote, that the election could be thrown into the House of Representatives.  Just take a look the Real Clear Politics Create Your Own Presidential Map.  Given the recent gains made by the Clinton Campaign, this scenario is not terribly likely, but it is possible, and this is what the Never Trump conservatives are hoping for. 

As all political junkies know, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.

If Clinton wins all the electoral votes in the Northeast, down the coast through Virginia (including Vermont and D.C., which have no coast), Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii, she will have a total of 263.

Trump could lose Utah’s 6 electoral votes to McMullin.  It is significant that the latest Utah poll, completed August 4, has Trump at only 37% to Clinton’s 25% 

If Trump wins all the other states, he would have a total of 269. This means he would have to win North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin.  If he loses any of them to Clinton, Clinton wins.  But a sweep of these four states is not inconceivable.

As I explained this past March in A Primer for Understanding Some Possible Ramifications of the Upcoming Republican Party Crackup, if no one secures a majority of the electoral college votes, then the President is selected by the House of Representatives among the top three vote-getters, with each state getting one vote.  A majority of state delegations are now, and are likely to be, controlled by Republicans.  But the fracturing of the Republican Party could easily result in no candidate securing a majority of 26 state delegations. 

Also, if no one secures a majority of the electoral votes, then the Vice President is selected by the Senate among the top two vote-getters.  If the Democrats win back a Senate majority, Tim Kaine would be elected Vice President; if there is a tie, then Vice President Biden would break the tie (this vote would take place before the end of his term in office), presumably selecting Kaine. 

But if the Republicans keep the Senate, then Mike Pence would be elected Vice President.  And, more to the point, the Vice President would be Acting President unless and until the House deadlock ended, as explained in the aforementioned Primer for Understanding.

This last scenario is the Never Trump desperate attempt to stop Donald Trump and place in the White House Mike Pence, a “traditional” anti-choice, anti-LGBT President.  Not a likely outcome, but the best the traditional right-wingers (as opposed to the new, "populist" right-wingers) could hope for.