Tuesday, December 19, 2023

The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Trump may not be on the primary ballot. What is next?

In light of today's Colorado Supreme Court decision, this could be the very strange scenario over the next year: 

 JANUARY 2024: The U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump may not be kept off presidential ballots because by the terms of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, the Constitution only prevents people like Trump from HOLDING office, from not being on the ballot. The reason given by the Court is that, also per Section 3, at any time before actual swearing in, Congress may remove the disability by 2/3 vote of each house of Congress. Any further discussion, the Court holds, would be premature. 

JUNE 2024: Trump is convicted in the DC case regarding the events up to and including Jan. 6, 2021. Trump appeals. The Special Counsel asks for immediate consideration by the Supreme Court, which hears the case, but does not rule by Election Day. 

NOVEMBER 5, 2024: Trump again loses the popular vote to Joe Biden, but a bare majority of those elected to the Electoral College are pledged to Donald Trump. 

NOVEMBER 6, 2024: An emergency motion is filed in the Supreme Court for a ruling that Trump may not be sworn in as President, absent a 2/3 vote in each house of Congress removing his disability under Section 3. 

NOVEMBER 12, 2024: The Supreme Court affirms the DC conviction of Trump and also rules that Trump is ineligible to take office, affirming the factual finding of the Colorado courts, but noting that if 2/3 of each house of Congress votes to remove Trump's disability before the votes are counted by the Congress, he may take office.  

NOVEMBER 6, 2024 THROUGH JANUARY 6, 2025: Extreme pressures (including threats) are exerted on Democratic Senators and Representatives to provide enough votes to remove the disability, in order to avoid a Constitutional crisis. Things get very ugly. Lives are threatened, some are even injured or even killed. Democratic Senators from states with Republican Governors are at particular risk. Nevertheless, none vote to remove the disability.

DECEMBER 17, 2024: The Electoral Votes are cast. Trump receives the majority. 

JANUARY 6. 2025: Congress meets in joint session, presided over by Vice President Harris, to count the Electoral Votes. Vice President Harris declines to count any of the votes submitted for Trump, based on the Supreme Court's Nov. 12, 2024 decision. Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, no one can be elected unless they receive the votes of "a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed." With no eligible candidate receiving a majority of the electoral votes, the matter goes to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets one vote. The House is limited under the Constitution to the three top Electoral vote getters. Unless one of the Trump electors had the foresight to vote for another Republican, the only eligible candidate will be Biden. But if the Democrats do not control a majority of state delegations, then the House will not be able to elect a President. In that case, the Vice President-elect becomes acting President. 

QUESTION: What would Trump do if this scenario played out, with no one elected by the House, leading to his running mate becoming acting President? 
                       Alternatively, what would Trump do if this scenario played out with Biden (either as winner of the popular vote or not) being elected President in the House? Another insurrection? 

QUESTION: How does this scenario influence Trump's choice of a running mate? He could pick any natural born citizen aged at least 35 who was not an insurrectionist who previously took an oath of office to preserve and protect the Constitution, has not already served two terms as President, and is not a citizen of Florida (where Trump currently lists his primary residence). 

CONCLUSION: It is vital to defeat Trump in the Electoral College in November.

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